2017-18 El Niño event
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The cycle of a new wave of El Niño in 2017 seems to be short-lived, as the tropical Pacific Ocean is warming up at a very rapid rate. Weather forecasters are suggesting that in a few months, El Nino may return. This phenomenon only occurs in 2 to 7 years and the most recent in 2015/16. ENSO is one of the most widely monitored long-term indicators of climate because hot and cold phases of this phenomenon can have very different effects on global weather patterns. El Nino, which is characterized by warmer ocean surface temperatures (SSTs) than normal in the equatorial Pacific, has brought unstable weather to some parts of the world and is being consumed by the energy and agricultural markets. Business closely watched. Some of the most significant impacts include drought in Southeast Asia and heavy rain with landslides along the Pacific coast of North and South America. La Nina, the cold phase of ENSO, only encapsulates the usual 6 month cycle in the last month. Over the last few weeks, the remnants of cold water have run out. In the last week of February, the SST was 2.3 ° C higher in Nino 1_2, the eastern part of most of the Nino region
The record-breaking El Nino between 2015 and early 2016, after SSTs cooled down, made way for the relatively weak La Nina to take place in the rest of the year. But watch the previous strong El Nino in 1997/98, 1982/83, 1972/73 - the non-recurrent heat cycle until 3-4 years later. Therefore, the ability of El Nino to return this year will be a "black swan phenomenon" unprecedented data comparison. For the first time this month, the forecast for El Niño has surpassed forecasts for a neutral La Niña in July-August, according to the Institute for International Studies and the US Weather Center. El Nino capacity from August to October is 51%, compared to the probability of 38% of neutral La Nina. However, some models are suggesting that EL Nino may come sooner due to the progress of SSTs in recent weeks. Predictions begin to show the contradiction between statistical models and dynamic models, with two-dimensional modeling of actual atmospheric and ocean behavior rather than historical data. Because dynamic models are largely predicted by El Nino when it is confident that environmental conditions are facilitating warming